Stop Pre-Booking Based on Pressure. Start Pre-Booking Based on Math.
by Chad Pickard
You're already behind on service. People are still planning last-minute vacations with new bikes. Maybe you got back-to-school promo planning done. Maybe you're skipping it this year because your inbox just flooded with 2027 program order requests and a 4-hour Zoom call landed in the middle of your day to introduce all the new bikes that are ready to ship.
That voice in your head says it fast: But I still have last year's models on the floor.
The Problem You Already Know
If you've been in this business long enough—especially if you are in colder climates with a shorter season—you've felt this. There were two brands in particular that I worked with that made this hurt.
One of them required me to commit almost 90% of my program order at the beginning of my worst quarter. I had to pay for it all when I needed positive cash flow the most. I was also their biggest single-store customer at the time. And they still gave me a program built for someone else. Think about that math.
The second program was so complicated that I'd rather reconcile credit card purchases in QuickBooks. That shouldn't be how business partnerships work.
So why is it this way?
The Vendor's Dilemma (And Why It Matters)
Here's what I think is happening. And if I'm wrong, I want the conversation.
I suspect it's this way because the bike industry doesn't have the data.
Put yourself in a vendor's shoes for a moment. You have 2,000 customers that need your product. Maybe 10% of them can give you a plan for their needs beyond the next 30 days. This isn't a dig at retailers. It's hard for a lot of reasons, and there's no judgment here. Retailers face the same challenge with their customers—2,000 shoppers with different habits and riding styles.
From the vendor's perspective: You're managing 2,000 customers with completely different business models, cash positions, and seasonal patterns. You need some kind of system to move product. So you create a program. One program. Maybe three options. For all 2,000 of them.
Does it work? Not really. Is it sustainable and profitable for them? Sometimes. Is it ideal for everyone? Absolutely not.
This isn't a simple problem to fix. If you're familiar with the Cynefin framework, this is a complicated problem. But the core issue is this: Without data, vendors can't personalize. Without personalization, they create programs that work for some retailers and might destroy the cash flow of others. It's not intentional. It just is.
The Cost of Acceptance
Here's what I heard from a retailer recently: "It felt like a good plan, so I just did the program."
Six months later, the bulk of the inventory was still on the floor. At that point, it wasn't about inventory turns anymore. It was about getting their money back.
This is where I want to ask: Why do we accept these programs without asking if they actually fit our business?
Think about what happens when you don't:
Cash flow gets locked up. A program requires payment in December, but your sales peak in April. You need a line of credit to survive the gap. Or worse—you're paying for bikes while last year's inventory still sits on the shelf.
Your margins disappear. Few talk about the cost of assembly labor, warranty work, or the marketing you do to get the customer in the store. Freight gets mentioned sometimes, but the rest? Those costs come out of your pocket. A 35% margin on paper becomes 15% when you account for what you actually do to prepare these bikes for sale.
You lose flexibility. You wanted to add a new category or experiment with a hot new brand. But you're overcommitted to the program you said yes to. Now you're locked in for six months, unable to pivot when opportunity shows up.
Your brand relationship suffers. Remember the retailer who said "It felt like a good plan, so I just did the program"? They were chasing that margin. So they passed on ordering bikes from that new category they wanted to test. They didn't add the second brand they'd been considering. Six months in, the program inventory was still on the floor. To move it, they had to mark it down. The margin they were trying to protect? Gone. All the flexibility they gave up to make room for the program? Wasted. Customers ask why you don't have new stuff. You get frustrated with the vendor. The vendor doesn't understand why you're not selling. Both sides blame each other. Nobody wins.
The Real Question
Before you pre-book with anyone, the question should be simple: Will this program work for my business and my plan for success?
Not: "Is this a respected brand?" (Yes, probably.) Not: "Are the bikes good?" (Probably, yes.) Not: "What do other retailers do?" (Doesn't matter.)
The question is: Does this specific program, with these specific terms, actually fit the way my business operates?
If you don't know the answer to that, you're gambling.
What Needs to Happen
The short answer: We need data. Better data. Shared data.
Vendors need to understand retailer seasonality, cash cycles, inventory capacity, and growth plans. Retailers need transparency from vendors on pricing, promotional calendars, and allocation policies. Both sides need to stop guessing.
Are there platforms collecting this data? Yes. Organizations like People For Bikes and the NBDA are building tools to help. Are there vendors willing to share it? Some. Is it enough? Not yet.
In the meantime, we still have a problem: You have a program order sitting in your inbox, and you need to decide if you're going to commit or not.
Part 2 Is Where This Matters
I've spent the last few months working with retailers who are learning to assess vendor programs the way vendors assess market opportunity—with data, framework, and honest math.
The question they're all asking: "What would it look like to say yes to only the programs that actually make sense for my business?"
I don't know if what I share in Part 2 will work for your specific business or if your vendors will accept it. But you'll at least come to the table with a plan that makes sense for YOU. That plan might mean not doing a program at all. It might mean better cash flow at a lower margin. It might mean walking away from a brand everyone else carries. The point is: you'll make that decision from a position of clarity, not desperation.
Part 2 will walk you through:
How to analyze a program against your actual cash flow
What to ask vendors before you commit
How to negotiate terms that work for you (not just for them)
What to do if a program doesn't fit (spoiler: walking away is an option)
Why clean data is your foundation for making better decision
Your Move
If you're thinking about doing a program booking and you're tired of accepting programs that don't align with your business, you don't have to wait for Part 2.
I've built a framework that walks you through this analysis. It takes the guesswork out of the decision.
Email me at chad@ratchetco.com with PROGRAM in the subject line and I'll send you the assessment tool.
This isn't a sales pitch. It's a conversation. I want to see your program orders work for you, not against you.
In Part 2, we'll talk about the systematic way to make sure they do.