Category Forecast Tool
(instructions below)
Category name
Historical data
Sept 2025 - Sept 2026
Ordering settings
Your forecast
| Month | COGS | Inventory Needed | Inventory to Arrive |
|---|
Project your inventory needs with confidence
The Category Forecast Tool helps you forecast how much inventory you'll need each month based on historical sales data and your desired inventory turns. Use this to plan orders, manage cash flow, and right-size your stock levels across your product categories.
Name your category
Give your product category a clear name so you can track this forecast over time.
Example
"Road Bikes", "Mountain Bikes", "Wheel Sets", "Apparel", "Accessories"
Enter historical data
Provide 12 months of historical COGS (cost of goods sold) and sales data for this category. This is the foundation for your forecast.
Enter by month
Input each month's data directly in the fields. You'll see 12 rows for the rolling 12-month period ending this month.
Paste from spreadsheet
If you have data in Excel or Sheets, copy the columns and paste them into the fields. Two columns required:
- Sales: Total sales revenue for each month
- COGS: Cost of goods sold (the retail cost value of what you sold)
Set your ordering parameters
Configure how you want the forecast to calculate your inventory needs.
| Parameter | What it means | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Projected starting inventory | The cost value of inventory you plan to have at the start of this forecast period (at cost, not retail) | $50,000 |
| Growth/decline % | Expected year-over-year growth or decline in COGS for this category | 10% growth = 10; -5% decline = -5 |
| Desired inventory turns | How many times per year you want to turn over inventory (COGS ÷ avg inventory) | 3, 4, or 6 depending on category |
| Special order % | Percentage of sales that are special orders (drop-shipped, not held in stock) | 10-15% typical |
| Start output on month | Which month to begin the 12-month forecast display | January for a calendar year view |
Inventory Turns Explained
Inventory turns = Annual COGS ÷ Average Inventory on Hand (at cost)
A higher turn rate means leaner inventory. Benchmark your category against industry standards and your own historical turns.
Review your forecast
Click "Calculate" to generate your 12-month inventory forecast. The output shows:
| Column | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Month | Calendar month of the forecast |
| COGS | Projected monthly COGS (adjusted for growth and special orders) |
| Inventory Needed | Target inventory level (at cost) to maintain your desired turns |
| Inventory to Arrive | Dollar amount of inventory that needs to arrive that month. Based on starting inventory and month-to-month depletion |
Interpreting the results
- If "Inventory to Arrive" is $0 in early months, you have enough stock to cover those months from your starting inventory.
- When it jumps to a value, that's when you need to order to maintain your target inventory level.
- Use this as a planning guide—adjust orders based on vendor lead times and market conditions.
Take action
Use your forecast to:
- Plan purchase orders: Coordinate with vendors based on your arrival schedule
- Manage cash flow: Understand when you need capital for inventory buys
- Optimize turns: Adjust desired turns upward to reduce carrying costs (if market allows)
- Track accuracy: Compare actual COGS each month to forecast and refine your parameters
- Run scenarios: Re-run the tool with different growth assumptions to see impact